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The Great Barrington Declaration
October 16, 2020

Joined: May 12, 2014
Posts: 1189
The Great Barrington Declaration

October 16, 2020

The what? On 4th October this year 3 eminent scientists ( one from Oxford) signed a declaration at Great Barrington, Massachusetts, calling on Governments to initiate a ‘focussed protection’ against Covid.

 

This declaration has now gathered  over 12,000 further signatures from leading epidemiologists, scientists, clinicians and economists across the globe.

 

In essence the declaration foresees those over 65 and the vulnerable ( those with serious underlying  conditions) being protected by social isolation whilst the remainder of society go about their normal daily lives. The latter would be allowed to catch the virus and establish herd immunity. Those in isolation would stay there until the virus is back under control with lower new case numbers or a vaccine is discovered.

Hancock has rubbished this idea already in Parliament. He cites ( rightly)  the mental health and loneliness pressures such an action would place upon those in isolation and the uncertainty that surrounds the whole herd immunity ethos. The  latter is achieved either by mass vaccination or by enough people gaining anti  bodies through previous infection. The trouble is, there is no vaccination yet or any proof it will be here anytime soon AND the whole antibody, immunity from Covid through previous infection is dubious. There have already been documented cases of reinfection.

But, isolation of the elderly and vulnerable WOULD lower Covid hospital admissions and ICU episodes as well as mortality figures.That has already been proven from the general lockdown previously imposed. Such  a move would also impact favourably on the economy and the employment sector.

The  19-24 age group now  account for nearly 40% of new cases and these are now beginning to impact on the elderly cohorts  in society, as we knew they  would.

 

So there are clearly pros and cons to the Great Barrington Declaration. Leaving aside my absolute hatred of the  thought of months of further social isolation I do think there needs to be a radical rethink. Regional ‘half’ lockdowns are unlikely to work, Vallance et al have already said as much. Manchester has held Boris to ransom and he has prevaricated too long in the face of open dissent. He has the powers to enforce regional restrictions but wilts under pressure. There IS a logical argument for regional restrictions on those areas with the very high new case numbers leaving those with lower or manageable numbers to continue as before. The problem is such a strategy creates a north/south divide ( London notwithstanding) . It isn’t an easy call to make but we DO need decisive and firm leadership whatever we do. That isn’t forthcoming at present in my opinion.

 

Thoughts?

October 17, 2020

Joined: May 8, 2014
Posts: 1648
The Great Barrington Declaration

October 17, 2020

David in about 40 days or so the people who didn’t follow the rules on lockdown etc and social distances will start to fill cemeteries up . We in Ireland have 5 levels of lockdown and again like the UK people ( 18 to 40 ) are just doing their thing ,example pubs etc close 10pm so we crowds exiting into the streets then having street/house parties. We have similar problems as the UK when the politicians have to try and keep people safe but also businesses are bleeding jobs and cash . So as always your dammed if you do and dammed if you don’t giving confusing messages,you have the News channels and political comments asking on NATIONAL DEPT .Whats the answer, peoples lives or a happy exchequer,happy doctors or populations,now 8/9 months after this  started (Covid) the message is still not getting through to large parts of the population. Governments have to be more controlling,imposing restrictions get the numbers down ,get a vaccine and cross fingers or undertakers are going to be busy .


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