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Time For A Change Of Strategy?
September 10, 2020

Joined: May 12, 2014
Posts: 1384
Time For A Change Of Strategy?

September 10, 2020

I am truly amazed at how discerning Covid-19 has become. It doesn’t affect schools, universities, wedding parties, workplaces or groups of 6 or under. How clever is that?

The new case increase IS exponential. That increase WILL lead to an increase in hospital admissions and deaths sooner or later. My local hospital has already begun to admit more Covid cases in an area where we have consistently been in the bottom 10% of new cases per 100.000 population. I don’t know what the demographics of the new case admissions are.

What is going on? Well the testing authorities tell us demand for Covid tests  has hugely increased. So much so that demand exceeds capacity at present. Some folk requesting tests  are being told to travel long distances ( 100 miles plus is not unusual). Increased testing is undoubtedly likely to produce increased new cases.

We are also told the major factor in the new cases increase is attributable to younger folk in the 18-30 (ish) demographic range. These people of course are often asymptomatic or suffer only minor affects from being infected with the virus. The danger of course lies in them passing their infection onto the older, more vulnerable in society. That danger seems not to fully resonate with many people in that age group!

But let’s reflect for a moment on the new case increase per se. The loosening of restrictions saw people returning to workplaces, schools and universities reopening, wedding parties being sanctioned, the nation being financially encouraged to eat out more, pubs reopening etc etc. Look at how the age group 18-30 is predominant in many of these activities! My point is; why are we surprised at this big  increase in new cases amongst that age group? Who didn’t for a moment think there would be an increase in new case numbers after we had bern in lockdown for months? No-one with half a brain surely!

The Government is seemingly planning an ongoing mass testing programme for the Spring. 3 million tests per day with speedy ( same day) results. It is a only a plan at present and is an ambition rather than a goal. It will cost £billions if it ever comes to fruition. BUT, dear friends, do you recall me stating more than once  the answer to dealing with Covid, pre vaccine availability, is living with the virus rather than hiding from it. What if we had invested £billions into regular mass testing and tracing at the onset of the pandemic. Maybe lockdowns could have been mitigated, if not totally avoided. Perhaps the £billions needed for such  a nation wide test and trace system would have negated much of the huge expenditure on furlough and other Covid costs? Instead we have spent that money anyway and are now looking at spending £billions more on mass testing as well.

 

Those of you who have read thus far ( I know I post lengthy rants) might consider whether the Government’s strategy of mothballing the country while we wait for a vaccine is sustainable or not. Most hospitals have large numbers of empty beds. Most NHS surgeons work at less than 50% capacity. The  Nightingale wards stand as prefabricated memorials to a panicked Government, albeit built at a time of great uncertainty. Meanwhile large numbers of patients with cancers, cardiac diseases etc etc have been sacrificed on the NHS Covid altar, including someone close to home!

The country cannot sustain much more of this. The current strategy of risk eradication whilst waiting  for a vaccine to appear is untenable in my opinion. We need to invoke mass testing, isolating those affected rather than restricting the entire nation. Unless we change tack the nation’s economy will implode. Risk analysis and management were key responsibilities of my former NHS role. Risk, by its very definition, can only be managed, mitigated or changed, it cannot be eradicated. The impact on health from an imploding economy is huge. We need to ensure the actions taken to manage the risks from Covid do not impact more adversely on the nation than the disease itself. We are heading that way already in my opinion.

I welcome your views.

 

September 10, 2020

Joined: May 8, 2014
Posts: 1812
Time For A Change Of Strategy?

September 10, 2020

Over here the virus has affected 58 schools,and also only get togethers of 6 or more mmmm in Dublin and Limerick. We’ve been out 3 times for a meal in Mitchelstown and Kay and 2 of her friends have been out for a drink about 5 times and the places we visit are well controlled. Common sense is not being used by the majority of our younger generation.

September 13, 2020

Joined: May 14, 2014
Posts: 261
Time For A Change Of Strategy?

September 13, 2020

Bob. Marty Graham R.I.P once said to me that common sense "Ain't that common" !


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