Two Wars: Each Likely To End Without A Hoped For Outcome
Quote from DavidFullard on February 11, 2024, 5:04 pmI have a 2 questions They are genuine questions seeking your views.
Question 1 concerns Gaza.
My question is: should Israel cease bombardment of Gaza and allow ongoing humanitarian aid [ eg food, water and medical aid] to be implemented? I am not asking should Israel cease its ground war, just the bombardments and its restrictions on UN aid.
In my personal opinion the war to eradicate HAMAS is already bogged down and likely a lost cause. HAMAS has a seeming endless supply of Iranian sourced weapons and if cornered will surely exit Gaza and await the withdrawal of the IDF, reappearing afterwards. The IDF has not managed to uncover more than a token number of HAMAS tunnels, ditto arms and ammunition caches and has at best killed or captured a few hundred of the alleged 40,000 HAMAS fighters present in Gaza.
I really wanted/want Israel to eradicate HAMAS but, just as we were unable to eradicate the IRA in Ireland, I fear it will be a fruitless war. And look at what has happened in NI since we left! A Sinn Fein [ Committed IRA supporter] as First Minister! The massive civilian death toll in Gaza (at least 10,000 + ) will surely act as a recruitment drive for even more young men to join HAMAS.Question 2. Ukraine
Is it time to end the war in Ukraine by negotiation? That would almost certainly involve Ukraine ceding all current Russian occupied Ukrainian regions.
Can the war against Russian oppression and invasion ever be won by Ukraine without NATO divisions on the ground? I realise the possible nuclear implications of that option!It doesn’t look as if Putin is ever going to concede defeat in Ukraine. Hopes he might run out of manpower or equipment are long gone. Ditto loss of Russian public opinion which, aided by state controlled media, has strengthened behind Putin if anything.
Russia [ amazingly] easily leads the G7 countries in the GDP growth tables, despite the implementation of countless trade bans and embargoes, confiscation of billions of rubles worth of bank assets etc, etc. That fact will do little to assuage the already jittery feelings of several EU countries regarding their ongoing very expensive support of Ukraine with an endless supply of armaments.
Zelensky has sacked his top general, who commanded the army, for daring to suggest the war is unable to be won. If Trump were to re-emerge as the next POTUS [ more likely now than ever before] USA military aid to Ukraine would almost certainly cease. Ukraine is barely holding its own WITH massive USA military aid let alone without it.Finally. JKW…where is the next instalment?
I have a 2 questions They are genuine questions seeking your views.
Question 1 concerns Gaza.
My question is: should Israel cease bombardment of Gaza and allow ongoing humanitarian aid [ eg food, water and medical aid] to be implemented? I am not asking should Israel cease its ground war, just the bombardments and its restrictions on UN aid.
In my personal opinion the war to eradicate HAMAS is already bogged down and likely a lost cause. HAMAS has a seeming endless supply of Iranian sourced weapons and if cornered will surely exit Gaza and await the withdrawal of the IDF, reappearing afterwards. The IDF has not managed to uncover more than a token number of HAMAS tunnels, ditto arms and ammunition caches and has at best killed or captured a few hundred of the alleged 40,000 HAMAS fighters present in Gaza.
I really wanted/want Israel to eradicate HAMAS but, just as we were unable to eradicate the IRA in Ireland, I fear it will be a fruitless war. And look at what has happened in NI since we left! A Sinn Fein [ Committed IRA supporter] as First Minister! The massive civilian death toll in Gaza (at least 10,000 + ) will surely act as a recruitment drive for even more young men to join HAMAS.
Question 2. Ukraine
Is it time to end the war in Ukraine by negotiation? That would almost certainly involve Ukraine ceding all current Russian occupied Ukrainian regions.
Can the war against Russian oppression and invasion ever be won by Ukraine without NATO divisions on the ground? I realise the possible nuclear implications of that option!
It doesn’t look as if Putin is ever going to concede defeat in Ukraine. Hopes he might run out of manpower or equipment are long gone. Ditto loss of Russian public opinion which, aided by state controlled media, has strengthened behind Putin if anything.
Russia [ amazingly] easily leads the G7 countries in the GDP growth tables, despite the implementation of countless trade bans and embargoes, confiscation of billions of rubles worth of bank assets etc, etc. That fact will do little to assuage the already jittery feelings of several EU countries regarding their ongoing very expensive support of Ukraine with an endless supply of armaments.
Zelensky has sacked his top general, who commanded the army, for daring to suggest the war is unable to be won. If Trump were to re-emerge as the next POTUS [ more likely now than ever before] USA military aid to Ukraine would almost certainly cease. Ukraine is barely holding its own WITH massive USA military aid let alone without it.
Finally. JKW…where is the next instalment?
Quote from jkwebster06 on February 11, 2024, 9:48 pmQ1 Yes Q2 Yes, on both counts for the sensible reasons you've given. Another major problem is hearing Trump today state categorically (assuming he will be President) that members of NATO who fail to pay their dues will lose the protected status of NATO , stating (almost frothing at the mouth ) that he would encourage Russia to attack such countries ! NATO NEEDS the USA, & NATO needs to stick together using the guiding principle that an attack on one member will result in ALL members retaliating. Trump's tirade today must be music to Putin's ears, taking his mind off the devastating losses incurred in Ukraine.
Not a Q, but next instalment delayed ( Liverpool won again !) but should be soon - off on another Warner's break tomorrow so might be able to respond during the break ! John (JKW)
Q1 Yes Q2 Yes, on both counts for the sensible reasons you've given. Another major problem is hearing Trump today state categorically (assuming he will be President) that members of NATO who fail to pay their dues will lose the protected status of NATO , stating (almost frothing at the mouth ) that he would encourage Russia to attack such countries ! NATO NEEDS the USA, & NATO needs to stick together using the guiding principle that an attack on one member will result in ALL members retaliating. Trump's tirade today must be music to Putin's ears, taking his mind off the devastating losses incurred in Ukraine.
Not a Q, but next instalment delayed ( Liverpool won again !) but should be soon - off on another Warner's break tomorrow so might be able to respond during the break ! John (JKW)